World Bank downgrades India’s growth forecast for 2021-22

The World Bank on Tuesday slashed India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth forecast to 8.3 per cent from the projected 10.1 per cent for the financial year 2021-22. The worst wave of the Kovid-19 epidemic has hurt the economic revival, it said. The multilateral lending agency forecasts an economic growth rate of 7.5 per cent in 2022-23. In a new edition of the report, Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank said India witnessed a rapid revival in the second half of 2020-21, particularly in the service sector, but the second wave of the Kovid-19 pandemic had affected it.

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According to the agency, “India has suffered the worst wave since the epidemic began and adversely affected the economic resurgence.” It is noteworthy that the economy fell 7.3 percent in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2021, compared to 4 percent growth in 2019-20. In April this year, the World Bank expects GDP to grow by 10.1 percent in 2021-22. This is more than the 5.4 per cent increase reported in January. But now the estimated amount has been reduced. The multilateral body has projected an economic growth rate of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24. The global economy is expected to grow by 5.6 per cent in 2021, according to a World Bank report. If that happens, it will be the strongest growth since the recession in 80 years.

“India’s GDP is expected to grow by 8.3 per cent by 2021-22 (April-March), according to the report. Local level restrictions have been taken into account since March 2021. The report says that “confidence is already weak and books are adversely impacted by consumption and investment by the epidemic.” Growth rate at 7.5 per cent in fiscal year 2022-23. The impact of COVID-19 on the books of homes, companies and banks is expected to fall, weakening consumer confidence and reflecting uncertainty in employment and income.

Municipalities are more likely to work from home than in small cities, with 71 percent of large cities and 47 percent of small cities satisfied with WFH.

As for the global economy, it is projected to grow by 5.6 per cent in 2021, the report said. If that happens, it will be the strongest growth since the recession in 80 years. This is mainly due to the strong revival in some major economies. However, despite the revival, global output is likely to fall by 2 per cent this year than pre-epidemic estimates. Among major economies, the US is expected to grow 6.8 percent this year. This is due to the large amount of financial support and easing of sanctions related to the epidemic. Growth in other developed countries is strong but slow.

According to the report, China’s growth rate in emerging and developing countries is expected to reach 8.5 per cent by 2021. This is due to the increase in suppressed demand. David Malpas, president of the World Bank Group, said: “There are signs of a revival globally, but the epidemic has increased poverty and inequality in developing countries,” and coordinated efforts are needed to accelerate debt relief. As the health crisis subsides, policymakers need to take steps to address the lasting effects of the epidemic and promote green, visionary and inclusive growth while ensuring broader economic stability. “

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