The RBI may increase the policy rate early next year

Moderation in the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate could soon end due to high inflation. Analysts expect the central bank to begin raising interest rates in the first half of 2022.

In addition, the Reserve Bank will begin to take a soft stance, he said. The liquidity position is still soft due to the central position of the central bank. Analysts expressed this view when inflation fell to 5.6 per cent in July. Two months earlier, it had crossed the Reserve Bank’s satisfactory percentage. The central bank has maintained policy rates. At the same time, it has continued its soft stance to promote Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Thursday that the current situation is not in favor of withdrawing the current loose stance. Rating agency Crisil says the Reserve Bank has restrained inflation and at the same time maintained its soft stance. But inflation remains high, which suggests that the central bank’s restriction is about to end. The policy gradually becomes more common in the acute estimation of Crisil’s counterpart. It depends on the status of the vaccination and the clarity of the financial position. The central bank said the reverse repo rate could be increased by 0.40 per cent by February 2022, while the gap with the repo rate could be reduced to 0.25 per cent.

Analysts expect the Immunization Drive herd to provide immunity, after which the Reserve Bank could raise the repo rate by 0.25 percent in April 2022.

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